Wednesday, 04.02.08
McCain's Veep Dilemma
Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images
Do We Really Need a Vice President?
8 July 2004
The Atlantic has twice questioned whether the VP job is worthwhile.
The importance of the second spot on a presidential ticket tends to be overstated. Even the savviest running-mate choices (Bill Clinton picking Al Gore in 1992, Gore picking Joe Lieberman eight years later) tend to provide at most a momentary bump upward in the polls, and even the worst picks (Thomas Eagleton, Dan Quayle) rarely decide the outcome of the race. But McCain's advanced age -- and with it the possibility that he might serve only a single term -- raises the stakes, by making his vice-presidential nominee more of an heir apparent than the average No. 2.
Moreover, he's on the horns of an ideological dilemma. As a Republican running in what promises to be a tough political climate, there's a strong case that he ought to pick someone the press will cast as a "moderate" choice, rather than a partisan one. (Florida Governor Charlie Crist is a possible fit in this category, and of course there's always McCain's great friend Joe Lieberman.) But as the maverick nominee of a party whose rank and file regard him with some suspicion, there's also a case that McCain needs to make a pick that shores up his base, whether it's someone like Mitt Romney, still the darling of the right-wing intelligentsia, or a lesser-known right-winger like South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford.
The obvious way to thread this needle would be for McCain to find a reformist right-winger -- a politician who passes most conservative litmus tests but has shown a heterodox streak and a zest for policy innovation as well, and who's far enough from Washington to be untainted by the scandals and debacles associated with the Bush-era GOP. Unfortunately for McCain, two of the most appealing choices in this category -- Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska -- are probably too young and politically untested to get the nod. This explains why the conventional wisdom keeps circling back to Minnesota's Tim Pawlenty. He's heterodox without being heretical, his state will be up for grabs come November, and he and McCain seem to get along well -- which is no small thing on the campaign trail, as John Kerry and John Edwards would be happy to tell you.
Surveying the fieldGeorge Will, noting that McCain is an old man, muses on the strengths and weaknesses of numerous VP options. |
TwoferNicholas von Hoffman says the choice is obvious: "For a party that up to now has been clueless about how to run against either a woman or a person of color, Condoleezza Rice is pure political gold." |
Forget the HucksterStephen F. Hayes warns against choosing Mike Huckabee as a running mate. |
Stronger than everThe Washington Post's four part series on Dick Cheney is the most convincing portrait of the radical changes in the role of vice president. |
The wildest VPWill Wilkinson and Jeremy Lott discuss America's most power hungry veep -- no, not Dick Cheney, but dueling Aaron Burr, who briefly aspired to be Emperor of Mexico. |
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"Unfortunately for McCain, two of the most appealing choices in this category -- Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska -- are probably too young and politically untested to get the nod."
That's a subtle way of putting it. There's a way to shore up the conservative base, nominating the brown Catholic guy or the woman.
As a conservative reading The Atlantic, I realize I am in enemy territory..
However, I believe Mark Sanford is the best choice. He's a young, electable, and practical - but he still clings tightly to a small-government philosophy. Some of the more centrist/liberal national media outlets don't care for him, probably because he's a Republican from the south; however, I think he has held relatively steadfast to his principles of mainstream, practical libertarianism. At the same time, he's just Pro-Jebus enough to appeal to the fundies.
asdf -
As a Minnesotan, a kind of twisted part of me is hoping that McCain picks Pawlenty anyway and that they go on to lose. I'd be happy to have Pawlenty gone from Minnesota politics and government a couple years early.
But I definitely agree with you that he's not a smart pick. (Another weakness: despite Pawlenty's being firmly for McCain, Romney still came out ahead in MN at the caucuses, with almost twice McCain's vote total. Clearly his ability to deliver the state should not be taken for granted.)
Sarah Palin would be my choice. Acceptable to Conservatives and reformers, but they key is the demographic angle.
In some McCain-Obama polls the # of undecided women doubles. Palin is middle-class and is politcally combative. This is currently Clinton's base. Why would you not try to exploit a decisive Democrat primary?
Two words....
Bob Barr
If McCain wins it is likely that he will age in office much quicker than a younger man and possibly may not survive four years. The physical stress he suffered in Vietnam is bound to become more of a factor each year as most old folks will tell you. Therefore it is quite possible that the chosen VP would inherit the main job before another election and makes the choice even more complicated. McCain is no fool and a patriot and will ponder this decision with an open mind. I wish him well.
No one who lives in Minnesota would suggest that McCain picks Tim Pawlenty for his VP. Tim Pawlenty hasn't done ANYTHING. Can anyone point to a single accomplishment of the Pawlenty administration? I'll grudgingly give him environmental regulations, but I don't think that'll be a great sell to McCain's conservative skeptics. Moreover, the Minnesota economy has performed terribly under Pawlenty's leadership. His programs are by and large underfunded, ineffectual gimmicks. He was reelected by 1% of the vote against a rather lackluster challenger. He has a 51% approval rating, and if he decides not to cooperate with the DFL legislature once again, that number can be brought much lower ala government shutdown just in time for the Republican National Convention. What's more, Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Tim Pawlenty is a stupid gamble that I'd advise McCain not to take. If anything, I'd nominate someone from Ohio or Florida that's capable of picking off a segment of the Democratic electorate (women, Latinos, etc.)
Posted by asdf | April 2, 2008 11:36 PM