Wednesday, 05.07.08

Yangon Hangs On

KHIN MAUNG WIN/AFP/Getty Images

A cyclone hit Burma, killing at least 22,000 and leaving another 40,000 missing and presumed dead.

Will the Burma cyclone lead to political upheaval in one of the world's most oppressive regimes? The indirect impact of environmental crises on politics is well established. Water shortages, flooding, nutrient-poor soils, and deforestation have all put pressure on governments and provided the backdrop to ethnic conflict. But it's been speculated that as populations rise in environmentally, seismically, and climatically fragile zones, unexpected natural events may not only pressure regimes but topple them as well.

In 1992, the failure of the Egyptian government to respond immediately to an earthquake, coupled with the ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to fill the gaps in disaster assistance, led to a dangerous situation for President Hosni Mubarak. In Burma, initial reports indicate that the military regime has failed to distribute relief supplies among a population that already despises its rulers. (This is a regime that spends only 40 cents per capita on health care and education, even as it maintains a standing army of 400,000 -- a size comparable to that of the U.S. Army.) Last year, during the large-scale anti-regime demonstrations known as the Saffron Revolution, the Burmese army was on the streets attacking protesting monks, but so far it has been absent during the cyclone emergency. The Burmese democratic movement, though it has an icon in Aung San Suu Kyi, is highly disorganized, which is one reason why the Saffron Revolution failed to dislodge Burma's generals. The days ahead will tell if the weather itself is any more effective.

— Robert D. Kaplan

Filed Under: Burma, cyclone, disaster relief, foreign affairs, junta, Myanmar, regime, Saffron Revolution

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