Monday, 07.07.08
Will Israel Attack Iran?
BRIAN HENDLER/AFP/Getty Images
Containing Iran
July/August 2006
Jonathan Rauch examines how Cold War strategies might help us handle Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Will Iran Be Next?
December 2004
As the most pro-Israel administration in Washington since Harry Truman enters its last six months in office, Israel faces a strategic choice. Will it use the possible indulgence of the Bush Administration to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, or will it wait and face an uncertain future with a new American president?
Halting Iran's path toward the development of a nuclear bomb appears to be one of those seemingly insoluble chess problems. The Iranians may agree to this negotiating proposal or that proposal, all the while playing for time, while they develop sufficient enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. A nuclear arsenal will allow Iran to become a Middle East hegemon like the Great Persia of antiquity, yet it will also encourage countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to develop their own bombs. Iran will represent the heretofore unseen and unconventional combination of being a nuclear-armed state which supports sub-state armies in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip.
Enter Israel, which is the only state that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has specifically and repeatedly threatened with annihilation.
Israel recently held massive air exercises hundreds of miles off its coast in the eastern Mediterranean, both honing and displaying to the outside world the complex aerial sortie and air-to-air refueling skills that would be specifically required in an attack on Iran. The exercise was not just a message directed at Iran itself, but at the Europeans - to get serious in helping the United States to force Iran to stop enrichment, or face a military cataclysm that could immediately send the price of oil past $200 a barrel, with collateral effects on world stock markets.
But what if the Europeans don't get the message? Or what if Iran continues its cat-and-mouse negotiating mixed with intransigence? Israel's future in this regard is indeed bleak. For even if a moderate Republican realist like John McCain, or even worse, a liberal-left internationalist like Barack Obama, is elected president, each is likely to subsume Israel to larger geopolitical considerations, rather than hold it up as an icon to be both supported and worshipped in the post-9/11 era, as George W. Bush has done.
Because an air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will roil world financial markets and thus provide Obama with even more of an edge over the Republican party, Israel may be less inclined to attack Iran before the election. On the other hand, after the inauguration, Israel will be in the hands of a new American president who will show it much less sympathy than Bush. That's why someone might bet on the period between the election and the inauguration -- say December -- as the perfect time for an Israeli attack.
There is a problem, though. Violating, say, Jordanian or Turkish airspace is not really the issue. The issue is that largely because of the on-going Iraq war, the U. S. controls the airspace over the entry points to Iran: in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf. Thus, an Israeli attack on Iran could probably only happen with U. S. connivance. And even if Israel could evade American sensors, few would believe that it honestly did so. As a sort of a last hurrah, one might speculate that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney would let Israel bomb Iran with a wink and a nod. But I do not believe that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates would do so. And because Gates has emerged as such a critical cabinet member, beloved by both the Pentagon staff and by the media, his word would be crucial.
Gates has shepherded Iraq from nearly a lost cause to a cause that might yet be salvaged. And an Israeli attack on Iran, precisely because it could not occur without both the fact and the appearance of U. S. support, could unleash a fury of Iran-supported bombings inside Iraq. No, Gates would not be on board for an Israeli strike.
Bottom line: precisely because the U. S. dominates the airspace around Iran, it has checkmated itself. Israel will find it very hard to pull America's chestnuts out of the fire in Iran. An Israeli attack is, in the last analysis, still unlikely. The problem of a nuclear Iran is far from being solved.
Behind the scenesSeymour Hersh warns that the United States is covertly plotting to attack Iran. |
Ask the expertsLaura Rozen asks Middle East experts and arms control specialists from across the political spectrum for their thoughts on the likelihood of an attack against Iran. |
Safeguarding IsraelChuck Freilich argues that the benefits of a preventive strike on Iran would likely outweigh the risks. |
Don't bombAccording to Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy, bombing Iran will end in "catastrophe" for Israel. |
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Wouldn't it be refreshing for one of these articles on the Iranian nuclear program to point out that Israel is the only country with nuclear weapons in the middle east. Is it any wonder that Iran and other powers in the region are considering this option.
Balance of powers is not a new concept (remember mutually assured destruction).
Perhaps a better more constructive approach would be to ban nuclear armaments from the region.
Anti Semitism is still alive and well in the land of leftist anti Americans calling themselves "dissenters" in this country. Absolute vermin that ought to be dealt with before they are the end of us all.
By the way my liberal friends, Israel is under attack daily, Poland isn't. One friend isn't "greater" than the other though one is in need by far more. Isn't that why you lefties support government handouts for people?
Can one of you lefties please explain why they have no qualms being responsible for a second holocaust?
Anti-Semitism is alive and well thanks to jackoffs who equate legitimate criticism of Israel with Anti-Semitism.
Israel's a big boy. It can take care of itself.
The reason that we have the relationship with Israel that we do is that we are connected by blood. America and the British peoples ARE modern-day Israel, the descendants of the tribes of Ephrahim and Mannasseh; while "Israel" is a Jewish nation composed of the tribes of Judah, Benjamin and Levi. This relationship dates back over 3000 years and will not be broken.
Yes, we know instinctively that the Jews are our brothers, and we will not betray them.
Stalin was the first to recognize Israel. Truman had no choice but to follow suit. Stalin also supplied weapons when no one else would. I didn't see any worship from Bush but he did have the guts to tell the Arabs their "refugees" would not be coming back nor would the 1967 ceasefire lines be turned into borders, something that Clinton wouldn't do so as not to disturb the phoney Oslo peace process.
Israel will attack Iran when its intelligence says they (a) are within reach of a bomb or (b) the advanced Russian missile defence system is about to be delivered. Right now Israel is clearing the table by trying get three missing soldiers back from Hezbollah and Hamas, and also engaging Syria so they will remain calm.
I think the Iranian retaliation is presented by kaplan as a reason for gates to nix US approval for an attack. I think this deserves so much more investigation, and while granting that kaplan had limited space, I think he cane to the wrong conclusion. Yes, gates doesn't want to have progress in Iran overturned by retaliatory strikes, but 1) Iranian retaliation ability is only evidence that the situation on the ground in Iraq is heavily reliant on Iranian good behavior and not an independent and secure Iraq; 2) does Gates prefer a legacy of an Iran with real ability to blackmail its neighbors to one where Iran retaliates regionally?
I believe that bush's final acts in office will include destroying/delaying the Iranian weapons threat. Iraq will face external pressure from Iran and foreign fighters no matter what. He will not want his legacy to be a dangerous Iran b that, through a nuke threat, be able to overturn the progress on the region he sacrificed his presidency to achieve.
The Israelis can no longer sit idly by while the international Iranian conspiracy saps their precious bodily fluids. So, they will do what Col. Jack D. Ripper did: send their boys in, forcing the Americans to go in after them and finish up. They won't worry about "airspace" control any more than they did with the USS Liberty in 1967.
There is a solution. Israel should attack Iran with ballistic missiles loaded with nuclear warheads. These can be launched from Israel itself without regard as to who controls airspace. The only quastions are (1) Do Israel's missiles have the necessary range? (2) are Israel's nukes big enough to do the job? Remember, they have never been tested. Will they even work? and (3) the biggest question of all. Do the kvetching hand wringers currently ruling Israel have the guts to nuke Iran?
Iranian Retailiation
What is Iran's capacity to retailiate against the US? A recent article discussed the Iran government's purchase of monkeys from Africa, presumably for germ warfare experiments. Biological warfare is a hell of a lot easier to do than developing nuclear weapons. Does Iran have a biological deterrent to protect their nuclear development program? I'll bet they do, and that's the REAL reason the USA won't attack first.
Six more months. Our mongoloid president and the pack of right-wing psychopaths that surround him have six more months in which to hold the world hostage with their apocalyptic war-mongering. And John McCain ("bomb, bomd, bomb Iran")is now known as a "realist?" Nice one, Kaplan. We'll add that gem to your collection of misreadings of global affairs.
Those war-mongering right wing psychopaths have kept you safe for the past 7 years. Give it 10-15 years and your boy Bush will be remembered alot differently. and with regards to McCain, God forbid a President is elected who knows where Iraq is?
I'd say right after Christmas. No holidays on either side, and no moon either. Nuking them with missiles doesn't make sense -unless they are capable of having it dig deep before detonation. The US will probably look the other way or be fooled, something to cover their back and give them plausible deniability. Expect retalliation from Hezbollah and Hamas but no big regional war. Sunni neighbors will pay lipservice but be happy behind closed doors. Iran will not risk war with the US; Iraq will remain relatively quiet. Pity for El Baradei, he'll have to eat his words or walk.
Alternatively, consider a ground commando raid the likes of which the world never has seen before. Very spectacular, very risky. Natanz and Esfahan are huge sprawling complexes -they'd need truckloads of material to take them out and people on the inside for years).
Or Iran will just get nukes somewhere in 2010, and proliferate the technology over the next fifteen years. By that time their own missile technology will reach London and Paris (Rome, Budapest and Madrid can already be hit I believe), which threat will allow them to start letting their proxies in Hezbollah and any anti-Western terrorist organization with a good plan to use it in small quantities.
My advice: let's all just look the other way and let the Israelis through, and never talk about it again.
I read some of the thoughtless commentary above...
"Do the kvetching hand wringers currently ruling Israel have the guts to nuke Iran?"
"Absolute vermin that ought to be dealt with before they are the end of us all"
...and I despair. To begin with not one of these idiots who hold these myopic viewpoints understands their own hypocrisy - or that in fact they are racing the equally blind hypocrites on the other side to war, death and destruction.
Try scraping a bomb victim off the street, or sifting through rubble for human limbs - you might find yourselves pausing for thought before advocating mass murder next time.
Goddamn chickenhawks.
mass murder? The attack on Osirak cost the lives of 10 Iraqi soldiers and one French engineer. Admittedly, this was a very centralized target, now the Israelis are faced with many targets. But don't be surprised if casualties remain below 100.
The sad fact is that the real mass murder comes in play when nothing is done. No scraping off the streets though.
ah and apologies if this turns up twice -i posted the same comment just now including a link to a bbc article, so maybe it shows up after being checked.
John,
Osirak is not what I was referring to. For that matter a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities - as you rightly say - will be a completely different proposition, but you may find that the casualties will by far exceed your estimates if for no other reason than the massive fortification and human shields the Iranians have adopted in response to Osirak.
I refer to the half wits who propose 'nuking Iran' and consider people of M.E. extraction 'vermin'.
"Absolute vermin that ought to be dealt with before they are the end of us all." "...responsible for a second holocaust"... hey Toby baby, that's exactly the kind of language used for the FIRST holocaust! So you have learnt a lot from your former masters - perhaps you can tell us the difference between them and you, and Israel then??
Israel can't attack Iran without at least behind the scenes assurances from Bush&Co. that the U.S. will publicly defend the action while disingenuously claiming the President knew nothing about the attack. It's unfortunately true that the attackmongers in Israel would rather take their lumps from Bush than either McCain or Obama, though both would support Israel publicly and privately chew their leaders' privates off. The underlying question is more interesting, and that is whether the annihilate Israel message of Ahmadinejad is more than a ploy to unite anti Western Muslim extremists behind the islamic Republic. Nothing in Iranian political behavior suggests that Iran would be so reckless as to attack Israel, since even anti Israel Arab Gulf states need to have U.S. support and money to buy theire oil and gas. An Iranian attack would isolate the Ayatollahs in the neighborhood, and would be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back for the dithering EU and UN "negotiators" who are played so masterfully by Iran. Russia couldn't block consensus on the Iranian nuclear program if Iran mounted even a conventional attack. While some Israelis and their less thoughtful supporters emote over the existential threat to Israel posed by Iran, a more careful analysis suggests that an Iranian attack on Israel would pose an existential threat to the Islamic Republic. You can always suppose that Iran is so fiercely Islamic that it would choose fiery death over regional power politics, but you'd have a tough time supporting your case. Israel should surely talk tough, as should we. But let's keep the war a war of words while we figure something better out.
magic_marker, yeah, some pretty dumb comments being made. I don't agree with you re: human shields. That works for command/intel facilities like Saddam had in Baghdad, or Hamas and Hezbollah deploy inside schools. Nobody is going to blame Israel if they find women and children inside a nuclear facility -so the value of deploying them is limited to the mullahs (understand that they themselves have growing public resentment on their hands so deploying human shields will at least in part backfire. Given that this is a highly destabilizing event, I don't think they'd run the risk. Also consider that human shields will be kept in admin buildings, which will probably be left untouched. So no kids chained to centrifuges, that's the stuff of movies.).
Fortifications yes. Which means bunker buster bombs that limit casualties on the surface even further. There will be no staff at night (except for skeleton maintenance crew) and Revolutionary Guards will be outside, mostly around AA batteries.
With some luck, radiation from the attack will hopefully be just high enough to put the facilities out of commission for good -not sure, not an expert but I'd try to accomplish that. So add environmental damage to the bill.
dwmulenex, you're behind in your thinking. No Arab country has attacked Israel head on since 1973 (right about when the PLO and the 'Plight of the Palestinians' were more or less invented). And the Iranians have perfected the proxy war model through organizations like Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and Hamas, with ample proof of direct support leading back to Tehran (in many cases through their second layer of deniability, Syria).
The danger of not acting lies in the proliferation over time of nuclear material, much like they are now doing with conventional weaponry, to proxy groups. If Hezbollah detonates a dirty nuke or worse even a real one in ten years, who is Israel going to attack? Lebanon? With Tehran threatening to nuke London if Israel would attack it 'unjustifiably' because Iran didn't strike Israel, how would you settle that? Can you see the UN siding with Iran already?
The strategy would be piece meal annihilation of Israel through proxy -while keeping Europe and by extension the US under threat with long range missiles and make them pressure Israel into 'taking it lying down'. It worked before, so why shouldn't it again?
Israel has to attack Iran to survive. Sanctions don't work because of the greed of the countries that are involved with Iran. The world cannot let Iran have nukes. Once their sites are destroyed, I hope the great people of Iran finally have the courage to rise up and remove their oppressive government. And if you think an attack on Iran would be bad for world markets... just think what a nuclear war between Iran/Israel would have on world markets.
there is an alternative both to attacking iran outright and giving in diplomatically that has a real chance of success, and that is for nato to blockade the straits of hormuz.
this may seem like cutting off the west's nose to spite its face, because such a move will send oil prices soaring since so much of the world's oil supply moves through those straits and it will therefore impose great economic pain on europe and the united states.
but in the end, a blockade will cause greater pain in iran. it will bring iran to a complete economic halt and give it the choice of survival with peace and honor or destruction. as an act of war, but without firing a shot, it will unmistakeably indicate to iran that diplomacy has failed and that the western world is not going to tolerate a nuclear iran. it will also wake up the complacent citizens of the western world to the stakes involved. moreover, the united states will not have acted alone and iran will see that the entire western world and maybe a billion people are allied against it.
on the other hand, coupled with the right diplomacy, it leaves iran with a way out that saves face and could lead to a real dismantling of its illicit nuclear weapons program without violence. iran could back down while claiming it is the peacemaker or it would be forced to fire the first shot.
keevan d. morgan, chicago
Will comment without first reading previous comments, or Meester Kaplan's bona fides (live dangerous).
Predicting future events is dependent upon knowledge of past and continuing (ongoing) events. Having plumbed the depths, and combed the widths of the subject, oer the last two years. It be ever so easy (for me) to see.
Date and methodology would fall under loose lips (for those inclined to have an understanding of such). Only one thing will stop Iran's nuclear weapons program.
It's end.
Either by Iran themselves [could happen (in some lysergic altern dimension). Or by Israel. Or by the U.S. The failure of many to see, to know (or to willfully ignore) the Earth's precarious balance. Won't stop time's march.
Tick
Tock
Can one of you lefties please explain why they have no qualms being responsible for a second holocaust?
Posted by Toby Hazzin
Perhaps us lefties remember the deaths in the camps of Sabra and Shatilla under the great Israeli War Criminal by his own countries come President> Everyone has to remember the holocaust perpetrated on Israel but are always forced to forget the State terrorism practised by the Israeli secret service in assassination of other countries democratically elected officials. Sorry to be so lefty but until Israel pays attention to the United Nations then they will get no sympathy from me or mine. It was not right what Hitler did to the Jews. But is not right what Israel have done to others in the name of "poor me". Grow up as a nation and give other nations a reason to want to be your friends.
The US & Israel should do whatever it takes to bring down the present Iranian regime and replace them with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and he will be our guy, as was his father before Jimmy Carter betrayed him. Once the US controls both Iraq and Iran, I foresee $1.00 @ gallon gasoline again. With our ally, Israel, we can keep the lid on the middle east "tribal" countries. Long live American imperialism.
rather than hold it up as an icon to be both supported and worshipped
This is insane. Who worships Isreal? Why do we really care what happens to them? We get nothing from Isreal NOTHING
Israel will not allow Iran to get the bomb, period. No European, Middle Eastern (Syria might be excepted) or western country wants that to happen. No one wants a bombing run but Iran will use such a weapon to keep a free hand in running their terrorist groups without accountability. Let's hope it doesn't come to that but Iran with a weapon like this would be a formidable foe.
The turn around in Iraq was happening before Gates arrived on the scene. Iraqis are not Persians, and they would welcome the Persian nose tweaking by the Israelis; ditto most of the sunni middle east. As regards MAD, no one has yet come up with a realistic response/deterrence scenario to the covert "nuclear incident". I assume an extralegal covert "nuclear incident" in response to the presumed offender is not in the lawyers world of endless "due process." However, war is the absence of the rule of law, what goes around comes around, and Teheran may suffer a mystery incident every bit a enigmatic as the Muslim suicide bomber in Tel Aviv. Chow baby.
Anyone arguing for an Israeli strike, or an Israeli strike with the US accepting full global blame as a complicit partner of the Zionists, or a direct US strike should review the 2004 War Game article by Fallows 1st. Any strike on Iran can go really, really bad - geopolitically and economically.
Israel has to attack Iran to survive. Sanctions don't work because of the greed of the countries that are involved with Iran. The world cannot let Iran have nukes.
Did we have to attack and destroy the Soviet Union with global thermonuclear war in order to survive? How do you imagine Israel would fare if a full oil embargo is slapped on Israel until it is dead, and anyone that helps what most of the world considers a pariah nation? As of now, the Muslim OPEC members + CHavez oppose any sneak attack on Iran, especially above all, by the Jews. The last two oil crises hurled on the US (embargo retaliation on us for sending oil Israel needed to stay alive, OPEC deciding to burn us after the Islamic Revolution in 1979) put the US in deep recession and unemployment. It only broke because huge overcapacity existed in the oil producers 35 years ago, and the US was the only huge market they had and cutting it off had the Arabs choking on production excess many producing states couldn't live with. Now that has all changed with Globalization and the Rise of China, Demography adding 3 billion more potential oil customers. Now they can sell every drop they get, without the US or Israel. And the 1973 trauma, when we were 30% dependent, would be mild compared to now when we are 72% dependent on foreign oil.
As for the "world cannot tolerate Iran having nukes", the world appears to be doing just so. Opposing Israel action by margins quite similar to the traditional UN vote margin numbers against the Zionists, given the consequences of oil cutoff. What the world wants to see is a treaty-driven, Nuclear-free ME, given that several of Israel's rivals will naturally seek strategic parity as long as Israel's nuke WND monopoly persists in the Region. Then a 2nd impetus for a nuclear arms race involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, and Turkey starts as soon as their rival Iran acquires the ability to wipe them out. That is what the world wants. Not Jews alone allowed to have WMD and bomb any other nation in the Region threatening their monopoly.
Biological warfare is a hell of a lot easier to do than developing nuclear weapons. Does Iran have a biological deterrent to protect their nuclear development program? I'll bet they do, and that's the REAL reason the USA won't attack first. Posted by Andrew P
When Richard Nixon, to his great historical credit, ended US biowar, he said that the horror of man-made diseases and retaliatory near to true genocidal slaughter of any nation using biowar that got out of control and spread was too much to ethically stomach. Also, Nixon said that the nuclear retaliatory capacity on any nation attacking our population with biowar was enough to deter. He's right. Attacking a nation with 5,000 thermonuclear weapons between 100KT and 8 megatons each with limited biowar is like a psycho going to a police automatic weapons qual range and attacking hundreds of cops armed with assault weapons with a bolt action .22 rifle. It simply assures the psycho does little to no damage and that the psycho ends up spattered dead meat.
Do the kvetching hand wringers currently ruling Israel have the guts to nuke Iran? Posted by Andrew P
Jews are known globally for their material greed, cunning, ability to manipulate others, high IQs, and creativity. All 5 attributes argue against Israel sneak-nuking Iraq. Such an action would be a temporary, Pyrrhic Victory. Ultimately leading to loss of the US as it's only ally, eventual extermination of the Israeli state on a total blockade of goods and commodities reaching it.
* Reading the comments above is like taking a walk about in a fascist madhouse. Writers here are prepared to nuke Iran on the flimsiest of charges based on imagining all sorts of malicious intent on the part of Iran. Making baseless predictions about Iran's dangerous future behaviour in a world full of great powers all of them possessing hundreds of nuclear weapons is outright silly and an indication of malicious intent. Let us imagine for a moment what likely Chinese intentions will be in a decade or two. Would they want to lay claim to Lebens-raum in sparsely inhabited but resource-rich countries such as Canada or Australia? Should we not stop them them now before they actually are in a position to do so? Do these people not have to at least wait until Iran gives them even the smallest excuse for an attack? What is most disgusting about the comments here is that some writers use the unimaginable suffering of the Holocaust victims to justify their naked fascist intentions.
The real question in my mind is, How deep in the faith are the beliefs of the mullah's in Iran. I.E How rational by western standard is this strong a belief? A brief surveillance of the Koran, the pronouncements of the Prophet and other tenets associated with the core beliefs of Islam show that:
Truest believers must convert the world or reduce it to Dhimmitude(in the case of people "Of the BooK" )or to death.
True believers are encouraged to use any tactic of deception including temporary agreements with enemies, to gain strategic advance.
So, how deep is the faith of the Iranian leadership?
It seems logical that if deception in threatening a nuke war on Israel was just a tactic it would be irrational to announce this in advance, thus risking if not inviting a preemptive strike.
Of course another indication of irrational thought or at the least Saddam- like poor military intelligence, would be the plan to absorb a preemptive strike as a tactic to "cover" an overwhelming counter strike.
If you are the truest believer , both points 1 and 2 , you don't care about the rational consequences of your deception because you will be rewarded no matter the outcome.
To my mind the Iranian leadership is so deep in their Islamic belief they intend to do what they have proclaimed and the West must take them at their word.
Once again, are true Islamic believers rational in the sense we understand?
Iran will destabilize Iraq when it feels like, Israeli 'provocations' notwithstanding. Iran has left no other option to those wishing to stop its' nuclear armement than force...it is now a matter of what the best logistics will be. I strongly endorse a joint EU, US, Israel, Russian ultimatum to disarm or face a joint strike force. It is the ONE thing terrorists cannot fight against UNITY, because their entire MO depends on appeasers feeding the crocodile in the hopes of being eaten last.
It is really quite simple - Israel will eventually do what it has to do to protect itself. If that costs it American public support, so be it. Frankly, wihout American support and resupply, Israel would probably have gone nucleat in '73. When your enemies claim that they intend to kill every man, women and child, surrender isn't really on the table. Who knows, maybe US support for Israel only postponed the innevitable.
For those who speak of balance of power - get real, or at least get a clue. Currently Israel has a nuclear monopoly in the Middle East, and the Arabs/Muslims have a massive advantage in manpower and territory - that is the rough balance of power that more or less works today, and even that only works with the US providing conventional military supplies. The Israeli Army isn't that great - it's just that historically the Arabs were that awful. The IDF made huge errors in '73, and were only saved by US resupply and the Egyptians inability to follow through on initial victories.
Ok so i have been hearing about how evil the war monging neo-cons are.
But heres what i really think.
As long as we continue to Import Oil from the mid-east, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE AND BOMB NATIONS for oil. I don’t care who’s in office. Unless you work for code pink or you are Dennis kuscinich.
The US imports 1/3 of its oil from the mid east. Other places like china import as much 50% or more from the mullahs. In case you have had your head in the ground, you would understand that China IS the US economy. From t-bills to trade deficits to importing poison in place of toys to food...in other words they have us by the balls.
Iran’s exports to China grew 16 percent in 2003, making it the latter’s No. 2 oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, according to Chinese government figures.
China’s economy expanded 9.3 percent last year and is growing at a 9 percent rate this year, according to President Hu Jintao. The country’s oil needs could almost double again, to 11 million barrels a day, by 2010, according to a report by Merrill Lynch & Co.
WE HAVE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE AREA.
Why should we stop stop stop Iran?? um.. well, If you have been listening to Iranian president Achmadinajad*, you would understand that this guy is a lunatic.
Apart from wanting to wipe the Israelis out, they want to bring back the 12th Imam.
the question is when is the Imam supposed to return? Twelver Shi’as cite various references from the Qur’an and reports, or Hadith, from Mahdi and the twelve Shi’a Imams with regard to the reappearance of al-Mahdi who would, in accordance with God’s command, bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world. "During the last times, my people will be afflicted with terrible and unprecedented calamities and misfortunes from their rulers, so much so that this vast earth will appear small to them. Persecution and injustice will engulf the earth. The believers will find no shelter to seek refuge from these tortures and injustices. At such a time, God will raise from my progeny a man who will establish peace and justice on this earth in the same way as it had been filled with injustice and distress."
If Iran gets the nukes, they will put the whole middle east in check. the mullahs intend to plunge the world int chaos. when that happens the west will fall to its knees.
How will they bring the west to its knees? China ownes out T-bills(over $1 Trillion) China almosts feeds the US Apert from Russia, wstrn europe also gets oil from the mullahs. If there is a problem, IT WILL AFFECT CANADA real bad. now what does canada have to do with this?... the UK is one of the big players of the EU. the UK also shares a very special relationship both politically(the queen) and economically(trade). In 2007, Canada and the US traded over $500 Billion of stuff with each other. Imaging if there is a sudden halt to the current remedy.. the Stock market will drop by like 5k in one day, we would be looking at like $300 per barrel. at home here, we would be looking at like $8per gallon or more.
I know some of you would say AIPAC, the bankers and the Military complex are lobbying the US into Iran, but try looking at the bigger picture.
I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH MORE I CAN SAY THIS, BUT WE CAN’T LET THEM HAVE NUKES.
Well some of you non-interventionists could say umm well Israel has nukes.. Israel is yet to promise to wipe out any of its neighbors.
OR
you could say eh.. the founding fathers were non-interventionists, then i will have to remind you that back then, the FFs didn’t have interests in other nations. In other words, they were quite self-reliant. There was no need to import oil, they didnt depend on china for toys, and weren’t in debt at the rate at which the US is no right now.
To Chris Ford:
Seek help.
emeka - As long as we continue to Import Oil from the mid-east, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE AND BOMB NATIONS for oil.
The "IT'S ALL ABOUT THE OOOOOOIIIILLLL!!!" Lefty meme and it's accompanying moronic connections to "Blood for Oil" so Evil Amerikka could get its Vampiric Fix so it could continue to put evil heavy white males in equally evil SUVs - an article of faith of America-haters since the Gulf War...along with Afghanistan was all about a pipeline deal - has taken a pretty severe beating via facts on the ground. Namely, oil is almost 4 times as expensive as it was the day the last statue of Saddam fell, 5 times as expensive as when the Taliban was routed so the "evil secret pipeline" to serve upper, dirt poor Pakistan could nourish the evil Amerikkka oil hegemony further.
emeka - well, If you have been listening to Iranian president Achmadinajad*, you would understand that this guy is a lunatic.
And if you had been listening to any analysis of the power structure and military chain of command, you would understand that"I'm a Dinner Jacket!" is a figurehead on government akin to a First Lady in the US, or a Euroweenie ceremonial President that hands out awards while PMs govern. He's out of chain of command.
emeka - Apart from wanting to wipe the Israelis out, they want to bring back the 12th Imam.
In the sense that Christian Evangelicals see the End of Days and apocalypse. The Jews with Eretz Yishrael ruling from the Nile to the Euphrates. All religions have doomsday believers, prophecy nuts.
emeka - If Iran gets the nukes, they will put the whole middle east in check. the mullahs intend to plunge the world int chaos. when that happens the west will fall to its knees.
Right, just as the US with it's nukes was able to put the whole ME in check. Or NATO would have just acquiesced to the Soviets plunging the world into chaos. Just as the West and the world fell to it's knees each time when the Jews, S Africa, India, Pakistan, and N Korea got the Bomb.
A great myth (with hundereds of contradictory facts or wars) has emerged. The claim that a nuclear nation is imperious to attack, and can do as it wishes.
Yeah. 1973 Yom Kippur War. Falklands War. Nuclear France defeated and run out of Algerian Provinces considered French soil in the 4th Republic. 9/11. IRA attacks on Royals and UK halls of governmet on nuclear Britain's soil. The global economic attack against nuclear S Africa to do regime change. And the 1,000s of instances when nuclear nations didn't get what they wanted.
emeka - I know some of you would say AIPAC, the bankers and the Military complex are lobbying the US into Iran, but try looking at the bigger picture. I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH MORE I CAN SAY THIS, BUT WE CAN’T LET THEM HAVE NUKES
The military doesn't want it unless the Arabs, Russians, Euros, Turks, Japanes, and Chinese are on Board. Ditto the bankers (the non-Zionist ones). AIPAC, however, would love it if the US was manipulated as their big, dumb Golem to attack.
If Bush and Cheney just did it, attacked in full warfare to help their beloved Special Friend of Jesus - Israel - with no imminemt threat to the USA...and the end result was a Global Depression and the whole ME engulfed in war..stand by,
The outcome could possibly be rapid impeachment of both, and indictments of complicit Administation officials for waging aggressive, unprovoked war, 2008 Election-tampering. It would guarantee an Obama victory and a Pelosi interim Presidency. And Bush and subordinates? Who bypassed Congress, the People, and all our treatied international allies? Criminal trials for the lower-level flunkies and any indicted AIPAC members...and Pelosi possibly turning Bush and Cheney, if impeached on the war crimes counts - over to the Hague to stand trial there for crimes against humanity.
What basis do you have for your premise that the US could stop a surprise, multi-faceted Isreali attack on Iran's nuclear facilities? Assuming an all out missile attack, cruise and ballistic, with or without airforce, how do you think the US would be able to stop it? Certainly the US could retaliate if it wanted(not likely), and the US probably could shoot down some of the incoming, but the distances to be covered are not all that great and it is baseless and harmful speculation on your part that the US could prevent this from happening.
I wish just once that a journalistic piece on Israel would be written by someone objective. Try finding an article on this topic written by a non-Jew. Or, better yet, try finding a review of Walt & Mearsheimer's book on the Israel lobby by a non-Jew. Good luck. If you find a good one from a reputable source, send me the link.
Isn't it really fairly simple? We, meaning the world, cannot allow lunatics like Ahmagonnagitya to flap their jaws like he has been doing. It's roughy analogous to someone walking into an airport and joking about having a bomb in his backpack...or a phoned-in school bombing threat. It doesn't matter if it's intended as a joke, it cannot be taken that way because there's too much to lose. We cannot verify his threats but we cannot ignore them. In essence, we have to take the lunatic at his word...and he will not shut up about it.
But, the UN will not do anything about his loose talk, so somebody else must. Who will that someone be? There's only two countries who would dare to rise to the occasion, Israel and the U.S.
If we don't move, someday Ahmagonnagitya or some other big mouth cowboy is going to make good on their big talk, there will be a nuke hit somewhere and hundreds of thousands will die, ground zero won't be safe to inhabit for years, and the world as we know it will have been forever altered. The combination of loose cannon talk and about-to-be possession of nukes cannot stand. And worse, as Kaplan suggests, if a number of other characters in the Middle East become equally nuke armed.
These people that want to underplay this level of threat are themselves a threat to future world survival.
I think John captured the essense of the Iranian nuke problem. It is no longer a matter of nation states or balance of power when working through proxies like Hamas or Hezbollah or other assorted organizations which readily offer their lives in service of their cause. Iran would obviously deny responsibility if their proxies employed nukes in whatever crude form on their enemies. Look at the threat wrought by the Pakistani Kahn in spreading nuclear maaterial around the world. The only alternative to military action , or a serious threat of same, is to hope that the Iranian mullahs are not serious about their intentions (i.e., restore the Caliphate). Is "hope" the best basis for a foreign policy?
"There is a solution. Israel should attack Iran with ballistic missiles loaded with nuclear warheads...." Andrew P...
ARE YOU CRAZY?? The world need less people like your kind.
How much does Robert D. Kaplan know? He can't even spell Obama's name:
" [...] For even if a moderate Republican realist like John McCain, or even worse, a liberal-left internationalist like Barrack Obama, is elected president, [...]"
But the point is this: You can't allow a leader of a country with a track record like Iran's on terror over the past three decades to strut about braying obscure threats with wild religious overtones that are possibly backed up with nukes.
If he was the leader of Hamas or Hezbollah, that's one thing, but he's a leader of a large, largely wealthy nation with membership in the UN and with serious military capabilities.
If you allow that, then anything goes.
stupid commies
if you were remotely informed about the issue you would realize that we should be supporting israel
you leftist wackos believe that you are somehow more informed just because you disagree with US policy. actually, you are just plain ignorant.
sometimes people like you make me question why i am even a democrat, but then i remember that someday you will realize that there is a reason why every person and official who is adequately informed about the middle east supports israel.
dont worry ---> its not rocket science, you're just dumb
"The problem of a nuclear Iran is far from being solved."
It can be solved simply by nuking Iran. And, in the end, that's what it will come to.
Like it or not.
The idea that George Bush is the most pro-Israel president since Harry Truman is nonsense. Bush with his invasion of Iraq and disinterest in negotiating a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians has undermined Israel's security. As for Israel attacking Iran, forget about it. It would wreck the world economy and turn Shite dominated Iraq into an enemy. This is all the work of George Bush and his incompetent presidency.
For those who support Israel only Barack Obama offers a sane policy. Diplomacy and economic pressure are the only ways to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. The key is to convince Russia to stop backing Iran and this can be done by scrapping the deployment of a missile defense system in Poland.
What's to say? I really should be surprised at the exceeding low level of discourse (chris ford). And disappointed. But mostly just saddened. And yeah, it be far too easy to say he's disordered:
"2008 Election-tampering .... Criminal trials for the lower-level flunkies and any indicted AIPAC members...and turning Bush and Cheney, if impeached on the war crimes counts - over to the Hague to stand trial there for crimes against humanity." [Posted by chris ford | July 8, 2008 1:11 PM].
But well ... many of us know different.
Lemme (pretty please) spell it out for you .... Israel will never allow a nuclear armed Iran. Ever. P e r i o d [and they don't need our permission (or chris ford's blessing), to bring about the end of Iran's weapons program].
More Reality: Iran will not suspend, stop, or decommission its vast bomb development complexes and labrinths. They could (and we could pretend, even try a little tiny bit more ... in the hope they will). But they won't (I'd love to be wrong).
They've spent billions and billions over the decades, in their clandestine effort. Stoked by the fire of their frantic caliphate dreams. To stop, to be humiliated .... well that just ain' gunna happen.
Would be a beautiful thing ... yes. Iran throwing open the doors to all facilities. Welcoming the world with open arms, to come take a look. And joining the rest of us here. In the new millenium. Back on planet Earth.
But reality .... well she be a slightly different shade o' perception. When the attack (by whomever/of whatever means/on whichever day) comes. And it will. The world can go back to worrying about who Britney is schtupping this week. Israel can breathe a (welcome) sigh of relief. And Chris Ford? He can continue to wrassle with his own little one eyed legless reptile.
TTFN (that's the froogin news)
Oh yeah .....
http://www.startribune.com/business/24060009.html?location_refer=Business
From above link:
BANGKOK, Thailand - (AP) Oil prices rebounded Wednesday in Asia from a tumble of more than $5 in the previous session after Iran test-fired nine missiles .... Gen. Hossein Salami, a top Guards commander, was quoted as saying the exercise "is to demonstrate ....
I was wrong earlier saying that Iranian long-range missiles can already reach parts of Europe. They can't. But the Shahab 3 that was tested yesterday is North-Korean (which goes under the name of No-Dong A there -pause for chuckles) is part of a long standing joint missile development program.
The Shahab 5 (Taepo Dong, again North Korean, and again, enough reason in itself to leave the NORKs as part of the Axis of Evil, forget about their nuclear program) will be able to reach London. No-Dong B (Shahab 5 -again, pause for chuckles) is rumored to be under development also, and can reach Southern and Eastern Europe. Expect to see the Iranians make a double effort in getting these programs ready once they reach nuclear status.
So then this long arm will be used to hold off the West while the mullahs let Iranian proxies like Hezbollah fight Israel, and will make the mullahs even more agressive with threatening/striking Western interests (again, not direct, but through proxy groups).
That's why we need a shield in Europe (so not to counter a direct Iranian threat -there isn't any- but to forestall nuclear proliferation on the part of the Iranians), and that's why the West should be thankful if Israel takes out the Natanz/Esfahan nuclear facilities.
And speaking of proxies: Putin's (oh yes) Russia really is using Iran as a proxy right now, who in turn is using Hezbollah as its proxy. But it'll be another thirty years before that sinks in I guess.
sorry, the No-Dong B is the basis for the Iranian Shahab 4.
Power is about the ability to persuade. A competent President should be able to use Americas enormous economic, political and diplomatic strength to persuade Israel to back off and Iran to abandon its nuclear programme. The alternative is oil at $200 dollars a barrel and bombs going off all over Iraq reversing the progress made there in the past year. And when I say bombs going off, I mean far worse than we have seen so far. Remember the Marine barracks in Beirut in 83. That could happen all over Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Qatar and God knows where else.
Perhaps, Michael Ledeen is absolutely right with his book title: The Iranian Time Bomb.
It wasn't just about al-Qaeda, or the Taliban in Afghanistan, or the questionable Saud family who must maintain a religious accord with the Wahhabists, or just Iraq, or any of the Islamist brotherhoods. Iran, and the mullahs and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are the prime evil of the Axis of Hatred. They have spread their hatred to the Hezbollah of Lebannon, to Syria, and financed and trained the insurgents in Iraq. Yet Barack hussein Obama thinks he can chat with them, negotiate.
Of course they will nod their heads and continue as they have.
Toby Hazzin, where do you get off calling folks who don't believe that Israels interest are necessarily our (the United States) interest, anti-Semite?
People like you belittle the suffering of those who died and endured the holocaust, by continually bringing it up as a reason for no critique of Israel and its actions.
You know what, many of us don't buy the story of God giving you any land. Many of us don't buy the idea of Allah or Jesus either. So, if you and the Israeli's feel that God promised that land to you, then have God protect you and leave the US out of it!
Obviously, trust in God did not work for the Israeli's of antiquity and without the US, claims of a "promised" land are foolish.
It is 1939 all over again. The world waits helplessly for the next act of naked aggression by rogue states. Only this time the rogue states are not the Third Reich and Fascist Italy. They are the United States and Israel.
Unlike the US and Israel, Iran is neither occupying any other country�s territory nor threatening to invade another country. Nevertheless, propaganda against Iran is spouting from US and Israeli mouths at an increasing rate. Lie after lie rolls off the tongues of leaders of the �two great democracies.�
Just as the US government launched its illegal invasion of Iraq on the back of lies about weapons of mass destruction and mushroom clouds, the US government claims it must attack Iran or Iran will build a nuclear weapon. The Bush Regime has learned never to discard a lie as long as it works.
Iran has stopped conducting oil transactions in $; uses Euros & Yen instead
iran needs to shut up and stop making the dumb threats. Everyone who has tried to destroy Israel has failed. It cant be done. They are Gods chosen people and he will not let them be destroyed as that would ruin his plans for the future of the world. Iran and islam and any of the other anti-jewish countries will not prevail over the Jews.
I thought the Atlantic was a serious magazine. Is Kaplan blogging now? God help us in this falliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing down. all best you guy. count me out as subscriber next time around
you people need to wake up before its to late. the minute that iran gets the nuke, its over. you act like iran is civil country. there murdueres with no conscience, they have absolutely no respect for life. if your backed into a corner by a big black bear, and you have a gun, are you going to say now mr. bear lets talk this over, you really dont want to kill me, or are you going to shoot the bear?"same thing. the insane so called president of iran is a cold blooded murderer.israel, and the united states should of already blown them back to the fifteen century. that would give them something to do besides kill everyone.all they want is for everyone to worship their god, satan after israel and the u.s. gets done with them iran will be a pig farm. if you were informed you would know that iran calls us by their gods name the great satan. there god is satan but he is not great. and in regards to irans threats if we attack them hogwash. after israel and th u.s. gets done with them they will be on their knees where they belong and they wont be able to stop us from just taking their oil. and we wont pay one cent for it because they owe it to us for all the trouble they have caused.iran and all their buddies are nothing about nothing. if we give them every thing we got, like i said they will be on their knees but they wont be praying to their god satan, they will be begging us to leave them alone. a good example for the rest of the nuts.
.
Radical Islam is evil and must be stopped by any and all means necessary.
Iran's government (in agreement with radical Islam) is led by lunatics whose ultimate goal is to force the entire world to convert to Islam and kill all who resist.
Attacking Iran's nuclear sites may have serious repercussions. However, allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons which could be passed on to terrorist groups would be nothing less than catastrophic.
Israel and the U.S.A. (and hopefully the rest of NATO) have the moral responsibility to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, no matter the consequences. This is a matter of life or death for the free world.
Anyone who uses the terms "neocon", "warmonger", "right-wing psychopath" or "fascist" in regard to those of us who truly understand the gravity and potential long-term consequences of the current situation is either uneducated, ill-informed, ignorant or just plain stupid.
These are the facts. They are clear and incontrovertible.
Any responses in dissent of these facts will be ignored because they are not worthy of a reply.
To "Freedom"
We leftie wackos have similar misgivings about people who use terms like "lunatics" for the government of Iran and "Radical Islam is evil". They don't, to me at least, seem to be consistent with someone who is arguing from a position of logic and facts.
Talking of facts, one "urban myth" in the article that has so far gone unchallenged is the statement by Kaplan
"Enter Israel, which is the only state that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has specifically and repeatedly threatened with annihilation."
I refer you to Juan Cole:
http://www.juancole.com/2007/06/ahmadinejad-i-am-not-anti-semitic.html
for a more accurate translation of what Ahmadinejad actually said.
But why should you let a few facts get in your way? BTW what's wrong with the term "neocon" - I thought that even the neocons regarded that term as acceptable.
Bomb Bomb Bomb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! USMC
Israel is an ally, but guess what Iran USED to be an ally too!, up until 1979---less than 30 years ago.
Iran is a natural and possibly great ally for the US AND Israel in the Mideast. They have a long mercantile history, many religions in their makeup (though Islam gets all the press) and are a natural counter-balance to any Arab-based power in the region.
Without their current leadership, and a peaceful path back into the international community, we would be taking vacations to Iran (like we will soon with Cuba). So it comes down to their leadership---how do you topple or change it? Our most successful way has been to rot them from underneath---Cuba will go down due to cell phones, the USSR went down due to Levis and China has gone/is going down due to the whole enchilada.
Bombing does nothing but give the current leadership a foil---ala Castro (great policy that!).
The shrillness here is deafening---back up a bit. We have nukes, Israel has nukes, we have 100's of thousands of troops on either side of Iran and a pretty go-it-alone President. What would YOU do if you were Iran? Very likely try to get the only insurance policy that seems to work anymore---a nuke (N. Korea). Heck, if you're lucky, you can go outside the lines and get direct cooperation from the US Gov't to advance your nuke technology (India).
Iran will get a nuke someday---you can't bomb EVERY single site they have deployed---all you can do is delay the inevitable, spend more tax money (don't we give Israel like $4-5bn/year in support currently?), and kill more civilians/soldiers to no real end (they will keep trying to get nukes).
End result---Iran gets a nuke, we and Israel wimper about it for a while. All parties take a deep breath, consider the MAD situation and negotiate around common goals. Iran has a respected place in the international community, reconnects economically and their closed gov't rots from the inside. Israel does a deal with Syria and Hezbollah, which leaves Israel with the Palestinian question by their lonesome, which (with less heat from the outside) they finally get done.
Israel, great as it is, is like Taiwan---the US can't let a potential outcome in their backyard determine our overall strategic policy. Get over it, someday Israel and Iran will be trading buddies and we'll look back at this like the Cuban missile crisis.
for the fool who posted that israel is the only middle east country that has nukes....wrongo stupid how bout a lil place called pakistan....hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Now lets not forget folks that it was god who gave that land to the Jews, and we must at all cost heed, and protect his word. Everyone also needs to stop presuming that somehow in the last 65 years of mans existence that truly evil tribes or civilizations of man stopped existing. There are innocent people in Iran but the tribe as a whole is evil. LOL hey lefteys not all trees you try and hug will embrace you back one will eventually fall on you. God bless American, and peace to Israel
One vital thing has been left out of this article and it is the must alarming possibility of all. Israel does indeed have thermonuclear weapons in the 100's and ICBM's to deliver them. Assuming they have managed to obtain a yields of at least 200 kt from a warhead (the US manages to fit 8 200kt warheads onto its admitedely much more advanced ICBMs) then it would need less than 60 missles to utterly destroy the approxiamately 20 nuclear weapons development sites in Iran, no matter how hardened. Imagine the fallout, no pun intended. Imagine 300 dollar a barrel oil for the 20 years it takes the massive immediate and most dangerous contamination (such as cobalt 60 with 5.27 year half life) to decay. Why are we pushing Israel into a corner like this? They are too small a country to even withstand 1 Nuclear attack. They have been directly threatened by a leader who apparently wants the "apocalypse" and thus cannot be deterred. What if this was your country. I hope no one pretends to be shocked if Israel is forced to take such an action.
I have a solution to all of our middle eastern problems. Once a year all towel heads meet in Meka, Saudi Arabia. One missle can solve alot of problems. Then we use Carbide Drills to cut through the Arabian Glass to get the oil. Oh and by the Way when the King of Kings returns, Isreal will be much much larger than any of use can imagain. Every knee Shall Bow to the one true name of GOD.....JESUS! We are living in the last days of the Beginning.........
Some are stupid enough to think that Iran will attach their nuclear weapon to a missile. Iran knows it would be suicide to attack with a nuclear missile. They will instead make a small nuclear weapon able to be carried. They will then hand it to a terrorist group to carry out the plan.
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Worshipped? Are you fucking nuts? What is our responsibility toward Israel anyway? Why are they a more important ally than, say, Poland?
Posted by Gus | July 7, 2008 10:24 PM