Wednesday, 09.17.08
The Phantom Menace
Getty Images
Rethinking 2008
October 2008
Marc Ambinder and Joshua Green challenge the assumptions that have shaped the campaign.
Election Superstitions and Fallacies
October 1912
Have you heard the Democrats' newest nickname for John McCain? It's "Bush 44," from a speech Joe Biden gave on Monday in Michigan. It's succinct; it's memorable; and it will convince exactly zero people to vote for Barack Obama. The biggest arrow in the Democrats' quiver is cut from an old, wooden meme that asks Americans to transfer their visceral hatred of President George W. Bush onto John McCain. If there's a way to link the Arizona senator to the lame duck president, you better believe the Democrats have thought of it. Voting record? Bush and McCain agree ninety percent of the time. Economic issues? Just "more of the same." Those adoring hugs between McCain and the president? They're the kicker of every Obama ad.
But so much for that. After four months of stagnating and ultimately drooping support for Barack Obama among the anti-Bush independents, it's time to concede that the strategy isn't working. More than half the country considers McCain a legitimate "agent of change," according to a September Gallup poll. In key blocs such as independents and Americans making more than $75,000, he's tied with Obama within the margin of error.
How can Americans consider McCain an agent of change when Democrats keep reminding them that he's just like President Bush? To amend a line from Obama's convention speech: It's not because Americans don't get it; it's because average American doesn't care.
As Peter Balk wrote in the New York Times Magazine last week, America has moved on from the Bush legacy. The surge has taken Iraq casualties off the front page. The Democratic Congress has taken the policy-making off the White House agenda. As a result the president has contributed little to the news cycle besides a quote here and there to express faith in the economy and the Republican Party. When was the last time you saw a prominent liberal bash a new policy from the outgoing president? Bush used to torment the Democratic Party. Now the menace is a phantom.
This is huge blow to Obama, whose basic strategy over the last four months was an elegant syllogism: We'd all vote against Bush; McCain is just like Bush; therefore we should all vote against McCain. But now, instead of successfully tying McCain to the GOP's biggest liability, Obama has pinned his argument on a guy we've all agreed to forget.
The national conventions tell the whole story. In Denver Democrats referred to George Bush almost 200 times. At the Republican convention, he received one solitary mention. Sure, this was partly a matter of necessity: Republicans weren't about to sing hosannas to a president who's left the party's reputation in tatters. But their selective amnesia also allowed them to focus on the future (albeit a future without many concrete ideas). Obama's fixation on Bush has partly trapped the Illinois senator in a retrospective exercise that McCain can trump by simply ignoring the president. Right now, maybe it's better to do as McCain does, to pretend - or acknowledge - that George W. Bush no longer exists in any meaningful way.
I don't blame Obama for conceiving the McCain-Bush strategy. He's certainly got a point: In a election that everyone agrees is about change, it's a bit strange that the candidate now leading among independents has no significant differences with the outgoing president. But if Obama hopes to win the election, he needs to grab the campaign spotlight and shift it from the space between McCain and Bush to the space between the two John McCains.
The Wall Street meltdown provides a perfect frame for that kind of attack. Instead of focusing on "the same old" fiscal policies, Obama can focus on McCain's shifting stances on the economy: his votes for and against tax cuts; his statements for and against the fundamental strength of the economy; his schizophrenic take on his own understanding of economics. These are unsettling times. If Obama can convince Americans that McCain's understanding of the economy is as shifty as the financial sector, he might be able to win the independents he's bored silly with comparisons to George Bush. Whoever that is.
Right to the sourceNoam Scheiber argues that McCain himself provides ample fodder for an effective Obama attack. |
Fact checkThe New York Times charts the similarities and differences between George W. Bush and John McCain. |
Remember 2000According to Ezra Klein, the brutal campaign Bush ran against McCain eight years ago still resonates. |
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McCain will be different from Bush 43, in exactly the wrong direction. Reading the latest Atlantic cover story on McCain should send shivers down any thinking American's spine. While Bush 43 has been uniformly incurious, the mind of McCain is "warmongering first" with negligible understanding of the economy or any other issues. Aside from the pursuit of war and some shifting definition of victory, everything else is a political sideshow for him. Given the chance - he will conduct wars to fund more wars. Warmongering bit heroes from failed wars have historically driven their country to the ground in search of false glory (hint:Hitler and his 1000 year reich). With "honorable" candidates like McCain - America doesn't really need enemies.
Sorry Derek, polls have swung the other way. Obama up by 4. Look, I know conservatives like to think that polls are completely accurate, so long as they predict what conservatives like. But come on, man. Shouldn't you have understood when you were writing this thing that maybe, you know, the polling could change? Sheesh.
If I were in the McCain camp, my biggest worry would be that the Obama's would go after the wedge issues that McCain tried to cover up with the Palin pick. Ask questions that force McCain to answer exactly what kind of Republican he is. Which McCain can we expect in the White House? How and Whom would he reform?
As well, Palin represents a libertarian western state. How does she feel about the past eight years of government intrusion and expansion into the private lives of ordinary citizens?
Split them where they are already split.
Upon seeing McCain falter when asked how many houses he had, I got a glimpse of adult onset senility at work. Now that he has totally sabotaged his excellent former reputation, it is clear that Alzheimer disease had struck Mr. McCain.
This is flawed reasoning. Just because Obama isn't ahead amongst independents doesn't mean this isn't a useful tactic.
Independents have always been a strength of McCain's. If Obama sat idly by while letting McCain craft his independent message, how many points would McCain be up.
THis is the central failure of political horserace analysis: "If you aren't leading with one specific demographic, then everything you are doing to cater to that demographic is a failure." Just isn't true.
The reason why the Democrats seem to be running against Bush is because their "owner" tells them to. George Soros' hatred of Bush is pathological. He and his 527s failed to get Gore and John kerry elected and he is putting all his hopes on Obama. Every American better hope he fails once again.
Obama is running against Bush because it works. He's not drooping anymore. The Palin bump is over.
Check out the new song "Watch Out for the GOP"
http://www.myspace.com/watchoutforthegop
If you want to know who will not change things, all you have to do is look at John McCain and the GOP. John McCain, it's too late to change now!
In the first paragraph you say," ..and it will convince exactly zero people to vote for Barack Obama...". It convinced how stupid and childish a comment can be. I didn't read the rest. I found it a waste of time.
I won't vote for Obama for one simple reason. He has very specifically announced that he intends to increase taxes across the board. Doing this anytime is stupid (given that the gov't taxes in various forms approx 40% of your income) but to do it during a looming recession is asinine. It would guarantee a recession, and make it much worse.
You know BobSki, you should chack your facts. "Increase taxes across the board?" Do you mean increase taxes for the WEALTHY and offer tax breaks for the struggling (shringing middle class), which I might add is in direct contrast to McCain's tax plan, which mimics Bush's prized tax plan that has gotten us into this mess.
Check the tracking polls released today...Obama is ahead in nearly all of them. I think this column is already outdated.
BTW, BobSki, Obama has very explicitly said he'll cut taxes for 95% of taxpayers. Perhaps you're part of the 5% that would see your taxes go up marginally. If so, you've had it pretty sweet for the last 8 years but it's time to kick in a little more.
Derek Thompson's comments help me answer a question: Why has W had nothing substantive to say about the current economic melt-down? Because since almost anything concrete that he might say is likely to be wrong (as is true for almost anyone, however knowledgable, until the dust settles), but could thereafter be hung around McCain's neck! It's simply good campaign strategy.
Obama is probably playing this right: wring hands, commiserate with "ordinary folks," and offer few explanations of the problem or detailed recommendations. Four months from now the new president will have to act, and speak "from the bully pulpit."
To see what happens to the candidate who offers immediate pronouncements, just check the number of times McCain has had to change his position in the past two weeks.
Didn't Obama claim to be a post-partisian, post-racial candidate? So much for "Change, chnage you can believe in"!
Obama's tax incentves will be followed by tax increases. Before you know what hit the 95% population will be paying extemely higher taxes. But as usual, when money is waived under noses the eyes go blind. Read the facts.
The marriage tax will double, death tax even higher. Obama is not telling you all you "really" need to know. But that won't be interesting to you till it is too late.
Anyone with an education knows that it is not "my" patriotic duty to support those who do not want to be achievers.
So sit back and fall for socialism.
Inepedndent, and voting McCain/Palin, sgainst extremely higher taxes.
I'm sorry, all you libs...you can hate John McCain all you want. You can trash Palin from every angle you can possibly think of.
But, you are displaying your ignorance to the whole world when you jump on this McCain = Bush wagon. It proves to everyone that you have no capability for intellectual thought. All you can do is process what the media tells you to process.
It doesn't even make sense to say that two different people will have the exact same presidency. You can compare and contrast all you want, but in the real world, if you stop and actually apply some brain power to the situation, it doesn't make any sense.
My proof will be in the fact that probably none of you will be able to come up with a reasonable response other than calling me a bunch of names.
FairTax. If the politicians actually wanted to make the tax system take more money from the wealthiest people (those that pay low capital gains tax instead of all those payroll taxes)then they would embrace the FairTax. This would completely remove the tax burden from the poorest people. It will NOT raise the price you pay at the register because the tax collected is already hidden in the retail prices we pay now. This should be a platform for the Democrats to make real Change and de-tax the poorest people in this country.
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McCain = 4 more years of Bush!!!!! Republicans cannot win the election as McCain doesn't qualify to be president>> Born in Panama at a Military Base.... According to a State Department manual, U.S. military installations abroad cannot be considered "part of the United States" and "A child born on the premises of such a facility is not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and does not acquire U.S. citizenship by reason of birth."
Posted by AFP | September 18, 2008 9:16 AM
Happily,a Federal judge,who all you liberals fawn over,has decided differently. And if you want to split hairs,obama isn't really qualified either as his mother was not an adult citizen of the US when he was born. And if you to split that hair even finer,the only two actual native born citizens are Sarah and biden. And we all know who would win that scrap. Sarah by landslide. I'm not really a mccain fan,but the choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has secured my vote for this election. In the future,it might be wise to actually check your facts before opining because as everyone knows it is better to be thought the fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
I love how Obama says he's going to cut taxes for 95% of Americans when only about 45% pay any taxes currently. The remaining 50% who pay no taxes would instead receive a tax credit, a check from the government. This is pure socialistic income redistribution. It will wreck our economy, especially in our current slow down.
Cut Corporate taxes to build jobs in the USA. Eliminate ALL taxes on companies. They do not "pay" tax anyway, they must pass it on into the prices everyone pays. That is a pure regressive tax. It "unfairly" taxes the lowest paid people in the country. It also means that companies have zero incentive to stay in the USA. Look at Ireland. After they cut corporate taxes their economy (employment) took off. Why don't politicians tell you this? Answer: because they want the US to become more dependent on handouts to the "poor". This is socialism. This is communism. This is buying votes. When more than half of the population pays no taxes, they will never vote for anyone that wants to diminish their unearned tax "rebates".
Obama's social "programs" are redistribution of income through taxation, and is actually just giving money to people who lack the ability or desire to earn it themselves while taking it fom those that can. Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor is nice in romantic fiction, but its just plain theft in reality. Its beyond me that the American people would get in line with this kind of thinking. Its every bit socialist dogma. The American way of life used to be predicated on hard work and talent. Now you can just sit on your ass and collect a check that some other poor bastard worked to earn. Why be successful when BO will take it away and give it to some soul sucking jerk?
His ideas of "global justice" are also farcical, which is no surprise coming from a man whose family isn't rooted in American society. Why should America put its best interests behind corrupt international cabals like the UN, who are totally inept and powerless - and should be kept that way. Do you really believe America will be strengthened with BO at the helm?
There's no way in hell he's going to stimulate economic growth by penalizing corporations with taxes and for making "windfall" profits... who does he thinks hires people? Why does he think companies want to do business here? Why does he think the economy will grow by creating dis-incentives and penalties? Guess he's got to pay for healthcare somehow, and since nobody's taxes are going to increase (according to him), we'll just steal it from successful corporations. Or better yet, lets just have the Federal reserve Bank print whatever we need - our currency is already worthless trash, if it devaluates any further we'll be using it for toilet tissue and trading the toilet tissue for groceries to feed our families. Remeber to thank your congressional representatives by voting them out of office, they have not been your voice while in Washington.
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McCain = 4 more years of Bush!!!!! Republicans cannot win the election as McCain doesn't qualify to be president>> Born in Panama at a Military Base.... According to a State Department manual, U.S. military installations abroad cannot be considered "part of the United States" and "A child born on the premises of such a facility is not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and does not acquire U.S. citizenship by reason of birth."
Posted by AFP | September 18, 2008 9:16 AM