Wednesday, 09.24.08
The Fall of Thabo Mbeki
AFP/Getty Images
Report on South Africa
June 1960
During a time of apartheid and brewing unrest, the outlook for South Africa is extremely grim
South Africans only
November 2001
As Nelson Mandela's deputy, Mbeki played a central role in shaping post-apartheid South Africa. Once regarded as a man of rare promise, he has been a failure, not least by the lofty standards he set for himself.
Things could be worse in South Africa, as evidenced by the chaos and misery that prevails in neighboring Zimbabwe. But South Africa was once a model of racial reconciliation, a political miracle more remarkable in some respects than the collapse of the Soviet dictatorship. And under Mbeki, South Africa was supposed to spark an African renaissance. Instead, South Africa has grown increasingly violent and poverty-scarred, and even its vaunted tolerance is at risk. From his know-nothing crusade against the scientific consensus on AIDS, which was likely responsible for thousands of deaths, to his embrace of thuggish kleptocrats, Mbeki has endangered all that generations of ANC freedom fighters achieved. Having abandoned Marxist-Leninist economics, Mbeki also abandoned the ANC's anti-racism, choosing instead to embrace a cynical racial populism to mask the unpopularity of neoliberal reforms. It was a clever political gambit, but one that threatens to poison South African democracy.
On the economic front, despite fiscal and monetary policies that have garnered considerable praise for prudence and restraint, South Africa has barely outperformed the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Despite a recent commodity boom, only a narrow slice of South Africa's population - a politically connected elite - has seen its living standards rise. From 1994 to 2006, per capita GDP grew at just over 1 percent; by way of comparison, per capita GDP in East Asia grew by over 6 percent. This abysmally slow growth has had a high moral cost. Thanks in part to an unemployment rate of over 25 percent, native-born South Africans harbor deep resentment of the hundreds of thousands of economic refugees who've settled in the country in recent years - resentment that boiled over earlier this year into ugly riots that left dozens dead.
Remarkably, South Africa is now poorer than in 1980, when it was a pariah state that denied vast swathes of its population access to education and basic political rights. The South African Constitution, an inspiring, carefully crafted document that is widely and deservedly praised, includes rights to housing and economic security and decent health care, and looks to the "progressive realization" of these rights. But the reality is that the number of South Africans living in poverty has sharply increased since 1994, leaving these goals further out of reach than they were when the constitution was enacted. Meanwhile, large numbers of educated South Africans are fleeing the country in response to rising intolerance, further damaging the country's economic prospects.
Mbeki's successor, Baleka Mbete, is a cipher, a close ally of Mbeki's rival Jacob Zuma, who will almost certainly become president after elections in 2009. Zuma is a decidedly eccentric populist who has been accused of all manner of crimes, ranging from sexual assault to money laundering, and he is beloved by many on South Africa's left, who hope he'll reject Mbeki's fiscal discipline and dramatically increase social spending. Most analysts believe that Zuma is in fact very cautious, and that he will adhere closely to Mbeki's approach. This is tragic. Had Zuma been less cautious, had he abandoned the ANC to form a movement of the left with his allies in the unions and the South African Communist Party, he may well have created a genuine, vigorous multiparty politics. Instead, South Africa is going from one strongman to the next. One can only hope that Zuma is more enlightened than we have any right to expect.
Post-MbekiRW Johnson comments on the rise of Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki's long, slow decline. |
The survivorThe Economist recounts Jacob Zuma's latest legal victory and how it paves the way for future political success. |
Jobs firstEconomists Dani Rodrik and James Levinsohn offer a solution to South Africa's unemployment problem. |
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Sunny, perhaps you need to get your facts right. Who is Baleka Zuma? Also who says that the economy of South Africa is deteriorating day by day? Mbeki, who may have failed in certain respects, has managed, with the assistance of a capable Minister of Finance in the person of Trevor Manuel, to bring stability to the South African economy. The best we can hope to do is as electorate see what transpires over the next few months before the general elections in April 2009, to make wise choices when we vote.
Go back to basics. What do you expect from him? What was his training? What were any of the training of the men we put in charge of a onced astounding economy that turned the rarest of resources into the greatest of commodoties-- liken the pathetic parallel situation in Zimbabwe.
Come to grips. we should have left them handfulls of afrikaaners to work with.
And we should have strongly warned against nationlization of farmland and commodity interests because -- as predictable in an infantile governing system -- thse industries have been used to enrich the rulers and by default enslave those they once sought to freee
this article is factually incorrect. the dumb writer makes crass statements that are devoid of facts. it smacks of stupid journalism & poor research. Reihan Salam is a total idiot. absolutely dumb. you know nothing about the ANC,SA or thabo mbeki. voetsek man
Sunny, who is Baleka Zuma? And who said the SA economy is deteriorating daily? The Nigerians who are seeking refuge in SA certainly wouldn't share your views about SA. The Nigerian politicians are amongst the most corrupt in the world. Self-enrichment is more important than improving the lives of the poor. You are uneducated about SA politics & should therefore stick to voicing your personal opinios about matters such as the Oil scandals in Nigeria. I presume you have access to internet and shouldn't find it difficult to log onto any SA publication website. People like you should avoid displaying their lack of intelligence & careless comments about current affairs. Go back to school & educate your deprived mind about SA politics if you wish to further wish to post your views on this platform. Wisdom and folly are like light and darkness. You are in deep in the dark right now.
Breaking News ALERT:
Motlanthe has appointed Charles Nqakula Minister of Defense.
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More Breaking News ALERT:
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Good summary and analysis, but the use of epithets like "strongman" plays into old stereotypes. Here's my take on this "transition."
THE FALL OF THABO MBEKI
Unceremonial dismissal of the South African President.
By Emeka Chiakwelu www.Afripol.Org
It is no longer the news that Mr. Mbeki has been unceremoniously demoted from grace to grass. The intelligent and erudite president of South Africa has been dismissed by his party African National Congress (ANC). Many people see it coming except Mbeki who has been blinded by the power of the presidency. One can accuse Mbeki of many things but we can all come to an agreement that the man is exceptionally gifted. He is academically brilliant, a gentleman with a first rate mind and temperament needed to run such a complicated enterprise like South Africa. He understood the complexity of South African politics. The Black South Africans majority are poor, angry and hungry. While the minority white population is gripped with fear and uncertainty. Mbeki understood this complexity but uncertainty is the key to unknown, which became his vulnerability. The overconfidence, overflowing pride, inevitability of power or what?
Foremost, Thabo Mbeki failed to recognize his desperate constituency which is the Black majority South Africans who have been abused and lived in penury poverty without adequate housing, food and water. Now the people are angry with the man because in the schemes of things he misplaced his priorities and direction. He down played the scourge of AIDS in his country and even went as far as intellectualizing such a real problem. People were dying and he is busy debating the cause of AIDS. There is a simpleton in making, people are angry and he has begun to lose their support and loyalty.
The Blacks expected a lot from President Mbeki, such a high expectation is a tall order to meet. While the white minority anticipated from him to continue in the steps of the Great Nelson Mandela, letting the dog to lie low and continue to march on without reminding them the price of injustice. Mbeki knew he needed everybody in South Africa and worked very hard not to alienate anybody. He catered to the elites and capitalists and reassured them with his fiscal conservative policy. He was ready to do business with the uppity and never desire to threaten the status quo. He balanced the state budget on the back of the poor. He doled out tax breaks and goodies for the investors. While he groomed the upcoming Black elites and rich, unintentionally he neglected the poor of his country. Mbeki was even criticized for addressing the overall Black empowerment with inadequate resources and attention. Simply put, Mbeki was accused of evading the poor of his country.
The endless problems of the continent: Civil wars and political disturbances in Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi and many others beckon Mbeki's presence and attention. The most pressing was that of Zimbabwe where Robert Mugabe refused to give up power, therefore creating a political instability that comes with hyperinflation never seen since Weiner Republic. Just like 1920 German inflation, Zimbabwe has no commodities to trade and Zimbabwe government printed money to deal with the crisis. The country has been destabilized by Robert Mugabe and his cohorts.
The West was breathing heavily on the back of Mbeki because they wanted him to be more decisive in the Mugabe's Zimbabwe. President Mbeki came up with the African renaissance theory and see all these problems as an intellectual issue, with can be dissolved and resolved by the renewal of the African mind. It might sound good on the paper but how do you go about transforming a continent or even a country when the people lived in squalor and ignorance.
Now the third wave: Crossing path with Jacob Zuma, the ultimate load that breaks the camel's back. The tussle and fight of power within the ANC family has just begun and Mbeki jumped in with his bare two feet in bowl of power contention with arrogance and pride. He rattles so many feathers and made so many enemies. The weight of the battle that Mbeki picked with charismatic and popular Zuma, whom he dismissed as his vice president broke his back. Subsequently, Zuma the consummate politician overwhelmed Mbeki and the rest, they said, is history.
*Emeka Chiakwelu is the Founding director/principal policy strategist of Afripol Organization. Africa Political and Economic Strategic Center (Afripol) is foremost a public policy center whose fundamental objective is to broaden the parameters of public policy debates in Africa. To advocate, promote and encourage free enterprise, democracy, human rights, conflict resolutions, transparency and probity in Africa.
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What an unceremonious way for a president held in the highest esteem like Thabo Mbeki to resign from office without an applause from his supporters located all over the world. Since the economic of South Africa is deteriorating day by day I think the best decision was taken. On the other hand Baleka Zuma should be well examined and screwed to know if he is actually qualified to behold the position of a South African President before the conduction of the election come next year. In Nigeria we the electorate try our best to see that the best qualified candidate is choosen, so a leaf should be borrowed from us by SA govternment. I want the best for SA because it is one of the country that I admire so much due to the sacrifices that she has made during the years past.
Sunny Chichebem. Nigeria.
Posted by Sunny Chichebem | September 24, 2008 2:40 PM