Tuesday, 09.09.08
Pakistan's Newest Feudal
Photo by Rizwan Tabassum/Getty Images
Zardari's sole qualification is that he is the widower of the slain leader of the Pakistan's People's Party, Benazir Bhutto. Her main qualification for leading her party and twice serving as prime minister was that she was the daughter of the late prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan is steeped in feudalism and governed by the cult of personality that arises from it. Political parties have no ideology: they are mere extensions of their leaders' love of self and power.
Zardari, the new president, is an erstwhile polo player and playboy whose singular accomplishment in life is that he got Bhutto to marry him. When his wife was prime minister, he was known as "Mr. Ten Percent," for the commissions on state contracts he allegedly took. During the years his wife was in office, he reportedly made off with many tens of millions of dollars that enabled him to, among other things, buy a massive estate in Britain. For years, Swiss authorities wanted him for money laundering. His life seems to have no higher purpose than joining the ranks of the megarich. He is reputed to be the ultimate bullying rogue. His ascension to the presidency is viewed as another sign that Pakistan will join the ranks of other failed states.
And yet, the storyline may not turn out as direly as predicted. Zardari spent 11 years in prison in Pakistan on corruption charges that were never proved in court. Eleven years in prison does something to a man -- even if, in Zardari's case, he was given a private room and bathroom, catered food, and servants. His incarceration was more like house arrest than prison as most imagine it. Still, the experience can steel up the character, teach patience, change one for the worse or for the better.
In fact, for a neophyte politician, Zardari has performed quite credibly in recent months. He has maneuvered himself into the presidency while handpicking the prime minister, Yousef Raza Gillani, from the PPP. And he has cooperated with his political rival, Nawaz Sharif, to topple Musharraf.
Now backed by the United States, Zardari must get the Taliban rebellion in Pakistan's tribal areas under control, calm the fires of separatism and insurgency in the province of Baluchistan, and work with the prime minister to get Pakistan's economy moving again. A life spent getting rich quick provides him little experience in these affairs. Does he even have the emotional will and strength of character to work seriously on matters that would challenge even the best and most well-meaning of politicians?
If Zardari fails, the military might once again step in to fill the power vacuum -- but in a manner different from previous military coups. In Pakistan's muddled history, generals and politicians have taken turns in power, and both have failed. But the West would condemn another coup, and Baluch and Sindhi minorities -- who see the military as a Punjabi conspiracy -- would erupt in nationalist fury if the military seized power. What we might watch for in the months ahead are signs of a creeping, undeclared coup, in which Zardari and opposition leader Sharif engage in a soap opera of political machinations against each other, while the tribal areas and other parts of the country slip into partial anarchy. The military would quietly assert itself, filling the gap in governance. Military rule would prevail, in all but name. That scenario is what the former playboy Zardari threatens to unleash.
Rocky path to powerThe Times explains how a man who spent years in prison, faced murder charges, and once claimed dementia now stands at the front line of the war on terror. |
WarningTariq Ali charges that Zardari's godfather-like persona makes him a godawful choice to lead Pakistan. |
Making his caseWriting ahead of Saturday's election, Asif Ali Zardari lays out his vision for Pakistan's future. |
A non-starterCiting Pakistan's failed party system, Peter Preston is ready to write the new president's political obituary. |
What's at stakeDexter Filkins's report on the Taliban highlights the challenges facing Zardari in Pakistan's tribal regions. |
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Kaplan makes it sound as if everything is in Zardari's hands--route the Taliban, calm the insurgencies, outmaneuver political enemies, grab quick snacks in between.
Events will quickly weigh on him and the military. The US is increasingly interfering in that country; the Taliban has a long-term strategy to kick the US out of Afghanistan and create a safe Pashtun zone between Pakistan and Afghanistan. And many of the militia and military regulars in the Northwest Province have sympathies with Pakistani Taliban members, who are fellow Pashtuns. Kashmir is also becoming restive, with Hindu/Muslim tensions re-igniting...
This is a disturbing trend in Kaplan's writing: it's well written, but he focuses on government strongmen, instead of the ironies and interplay between groups.
It doesn't matter how savvy prison made Zardari--he is trying to ride a gathering whirlwind, and who knows where it stops.
P.S. I would love for Kaplan to write a "sequel" to "Empire Wilderness." His best work was in eyeing the US as a foreign traveler would, rather than making simplistic realpolitik observations about other countries.
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Robert Kaplan is, of course, entitled to his opinion. But he conveniently forgets or disregards the fact that Zardari's nickname of 'Mr Ten Per Cent' was leaked to the media by the Army's infamous intelligence service, the ISI.
It was too good to resist - no matter if it was fact or fiction: it was a journalist's dream of a name. And if the ISI said it was true, who felt like arguing? Not the newshounds, that's for sure. Like they used to say on Britain's Fleet Street, 'Don't spoil a good story with too many facts'.
Pakistan like many other countries has a long history of alleging corruption to discredit people in politics. And corruption can mean almost anything you like, since such allegations are impossible to disprove. They simply bemirch a person't name. So, job done.
But not one of the 'corruption' charges levelled at Zardari was ever proven, even by a judiciary manifestly in Musharraf's pocket. Even Jemima Khan (wife of Imran) was accused of corrpution by Pakistan's authorities, though they later withdrew the charges and amitted they were unsubstantiated. Rather, they were intended as a warning to stay out of politics. I rest my case.
Earlier this year the august weekly The Economist calculated that some 75% of the $10 billion of US aid given to Pakistan was unaccounted for or had 'gone missing'. It is therefore fair to assume that it went into the pockets of Musharraf and his army cronies. Now let's see, that would make Musharraf Mr Seventy-five Per Cent, wouldn't it? Hmmmm.
I think one can be sure the money didn't end up going to healthcare or education projects, anonymously or otherwise. We'd have heard about it. Words like kettle, pot and black spring instantly to mind, not to mention thoughts of glass windows and throwing stones.
Fancy trusting the propaganda of spooks, Mr Kaplan: shame on you.
Posted by Anthony McCall-Judson | September 9, 2008 5:44 PM