Thursday, 10.02.08
Low Expectations
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Low expectations might be the secret to happiness, but are they the secret to winning an election? The McCain campaign must be hoping so, and the Democrats are crossing their collective fingers that it won't be the case. But just about everyone seems to agree that Palin's gruesome performance in last week's interview with Katie Couric has given the Alaska governor an advantage in tonight's VP debate. CNN's Gloria Borger says that the bar that Palin must clear is "on the floor" and NBC's Savannah Guthrie commented this week that the McCain camp will be pleased as peaches if Palin "just survives." One Wisconsin political scientist told the press that Palin should be fine so long as she can avoid an "embarrassing massacre," as if she were about to debate Genghis Khan.
As a matter of historical prediction, these pundits are almost certainly right: Sarah Palin will be the happy beneficiary of low expectations. When you're near the bottom it's hard to go anywhere but up. (Sixty percent of the public now thinks Palin does not have the experience to be president.) And yet it seems equally true that low expectations are the wrong standard to apply to tonight's debate. In part this is because the media's expectations can be self-fulfilling: predictions can influence outcomes, especially when the people making the predictions are the very same people interpreting the outcome. And since the questions of who "won" the debate is almost entirely a matter of interpretation, doesn't the press have an incentive to prove itself right?
But the more important problem is that Palin is not running for vice president against herself (evidence from the Couric interview to the contrary), and the yardstick of past performance isn't the most important one. She is running against Joe Biden and, if we're trying to figure out who won the debate, she should be compared to him. When voters punch their ballots on November 4, they won't be deciding between the Sarah Palin who bluffed and fumbled her way through the Couric interview and the Palin who will appear onstage in St. Louis tonight. They will be choosing between two tickets, and they should pick the most qualified.
There are no prizes for being the most-improved candidate, even if voters can glean something valuable from improvement. There should be only one prize: for being the best candidate. Or at least that's what I'd like to expect.
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Ifill's book plans have been public since July. Also, the moderator's questions to both candidates are going to be the same, it shouldn't matter. And there is no freewheeling allowed so moderator's role is minor. Moderators are partial. Journalists ask 'gotcha' questions. People in pizza places shout 'gotcha' questions across 'areas'. Well the whole world is stacked against her, isn't it? If she cant deal with these gnats how is she planning to take on Ahmedinejads of this world?!! I cannot imagine such lax standards would be allowed for a man and as a female watching this farce I am embarrassed and angry at Palin for being so unprepared and expecting pity from everyone for that.
Sarah Palin has been vaulted to the limelight by the McCain campaign, not because she is an extraordinary leader or thoughtful but because she is an extremist, spirited and not afraid of spotlights. She is cravenly ambitious, which John McCain gets a kick out of and she is very willing to under go a "make-over" by Rove and the McCain campaign in order to transform herself into a winning machine. If she wins, she will be drunk with power and it will real ugly to watch. She is no different than President Bush and she will rule just as incompentently.
Sarah Palin has been vaulted to the limelight by the McCain campaign, not because she is an extraordinary leader or thoughtful but because she is an extremist, spirited and not afraid of spotlights. She is cravenly ambitious, which John McCain gets a kick out of and she is very willing to under go a "make-over" by Rove and the McCain campaign in order to transform herself into a winning machine. If she wins, she will be drunk with power and it will be real ugly to watch. She is no different than President Bush and she will rule just as incompentently.
It is either SNL or Mad TV that has the skit "lowered expectations" that is pretty funny. You know where the two lovers lower their epectations in a mate and end up with an average lover that is just like they are. Unfortunately, our choices for president in this election and several previous ones have given Americans the best of two unfavarable choices. 19 million democrats wished for Senator Clinton and now have to "hold their noses" when they pull the straight democratic lever when they go to vote. They had the same choice in 2004 when all they wanted to do was vote out President Bush and had to vote for Senator Kerry. And yes, the Repulicans feel the same way this year. Conservatives in the Republican Party were going to stay home on election day. McCain is almost considered a leftist by the Republican base. Then he went and nominated the living, walking, breathing "pin-up" vice presidential candidate for new conservatism. And now they will go to the polls and vote for Governor Palin more than they will go to vote for the top of the ticket. Even though the spliced up CBS interview with Governor Palin left staunch Republicans scrathing their heads and saying, "C'mon: we know you're not running for The Supreme Court; but, at least give us one. How about this years decision to make the death penalty for child rapist unconstitutional." The right loyalist still felt the tone of the interview to be "Gotcha" politics and will dismiss the short interview that was spread out over 10 days as an attempt to boost ratings. Just as left loyalist will dismiss Senator Biden's numerous gaffes. I wonder if Governor Palin knew that FDR did not go on TV in 1929 to talk about the stock market "crash?" If you remember in the debate last week between Senator McCain and Senator Obama. The pundits said that all that Senator Obama had to do was go out and tie. And yes, they were correct he tied; so, he won. Even though, according to USA Today, "Americans are split, 46%-46%, over whether Obama, a first-term senator, has the experience to be president. In contrast, Clinton is seen as having enough experience by 2-1, McCain by 3-1." http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-25-poll-prez_N.htm With this said, even if Governor Palin goes out and "wipes the floor" with Senator Biden she still loses according to many pundits. And why, because most in the "beltway" have already made up there minds about Governor Palin. It was made up when the media was first duped by her being announced as the vice presidential without their blessing. And Mr Blake, it seems that you think that Senator Biden is the "most qualified." That of course is your opinion and it is debatable if he brings any new voters to the Democratic ticket as Governor Palin did to the Republican ticket. The "beltway" knows that Senator Biden was picked to try to shore up Senator Obama's shortcomings in over all experience and specifically in foreign policy; and, to win PA. The problem is that Senator Biden has his own poor performances with his exaggerations about being shot at in Iraq and his helicopter being forced down; his withdrawal from the 1988 presidential primary due to plagiarism; his plan to partition Iraq; his FDR comment; saying Senator Clinton would be a better choice for VP than him; and, so on. So let's hope the most qualified person wins the election. If she wins the debate tonight, maybe she will take the energy out of the Obama campaign, just as she did after Senator Obama's historic acceptance speech. What was that a 15 point switch? To be honest, I dont know, I just dont know? Then again, isnt it about the top of the ticket?
Low expectations my ass.
Sarah didn't just hold her own, she kicked Biden's ass.
Sorry, Palin sucked.
She presented very little substance in all her "Gee Golly, shucks" attempts at appealing to the viewers.
I'm insulted that her and her handlers think the voters so stupid as to expect heart-tugging like this to work when we're supposed to be deciding on who will RUN THE COUNTRY!
Biden had experience and held back. He's a real maverick, Palin was picked by McCain not by what she's done but who she is. She's a token, not a real VP.
The entire post is words of wisdom and needed to be said.
This was not a true debate. It's structure forced it to be a series of mini-speeches. Palin can and did do well in such a format.
If this were a real rough and tumble political debate and if Palin were a man, you know that Biden would have absolutely cleaned her (his) clock. But tonight he obviously could not do so, not only because of the format and her gender, but also due to the fact that she has proven herself to be so out of her league, he would be perceived as a bully picking on a weaker, fact-challenged opponent.
The fact that Palin held up without falling off the stage does nothing to argue in favor of her being prepared to assume the office of Vice President or especially that of President. We've seen her with Gibson and Couric. This night of mini-speeches does not erase the record of her embarrassing and revealing interviews.
Palin "paled-in" comparrison to Senator Biden.
She has truly exasperated "talking points". I am so tired or Republican 'talking points'. They're used in response to any question. This makes the speaker appear stupid as did Gov. Palin when asked specific questions and she used an unrelated "talking point" to respond. It seems that each time she was asked a question to which she had no responsive or responsible answer, she simply returned to a "talking point". Tonight, it was energy primarily. The use of talking points really stand out when the question posed is posted glaringly in the viewer's sight. It makes one feel as if one is in a "squirrell cage."
Yes, I know I'm twisted. While I stole snippets of the 'debate' while working I must confess to hoping for Palin to crumble and leave the stage distraught.
Oh well, carnage it wasn't to be but it nonetheless she reinforced my view that for her even to be on the ticket belies that which embarrasses many Americans.
While Palin would be a disaster nationally and globally, Biden would not.
Vote wisely, you enjoy a privilege I can't share.
I think the biggest problem was that from a strictly issues-based analysis, Biden won unfalteringly. He showed his ticket's positions in an educated (though not elitist) way and gave the American people what they deserved.
Palin showed she can be a Republican in a leadership position. What this seems to be any more is a smattering of talking points which are constantly reiterated with no transparency or accountability for 'gut-feeling' style ad-hoc policy formation which can lead to very serious repercussions down the road.
That display will rally much of the staunch Republican voter base behind her as a sound appointment, but to any registered republicans who look at more than the small letter next to someone's name when voting, it's worrying. I myself am in the latter category, and find the concept of a ball-playing party line McCain Presidency and folksy, talking head VP utterly horrifying in the face of the most recent developments domestically and abroad. Essentially, by proving that she is not a complete moron unable to parrot something she's told repeatedly and practices ad nausea, Palin proved enough competence to gain the support of more than just religious watershed voters in the Republican party.
The Democrats should have asked Palin to explain, point-blank, why being a “maverick” is good. A maverick is a wild, untrained, unpredictable horse. They don’t get much done. As a metaphor, a maverick is a person who does what he wants, when he wants to, even when by definition most others disagree. Unless you know more about everything, all the time, than everyone, that can’t possibly be successful. Further, the Democrats should point out this is no break from George Bush. When many experts said there may be no WMD, George Bush was a maverick, he said there were. When experts, including Biden in the Senate, warned the Iraq war would be a quagmire, George Bush was a maverick, he stormed in. When so many experts urged to keep the eye on the ball, Al Quaeda in Afghanistan, George Bush was a maverick: forget about it. When so many warned the administration - which actually MANAGES the government, the Congress doesn’t - needed to focus on the horrifying real estate bubble, George Bush was a maverick: he said don’t worry, it's a free market, my agencies are hands-off. We need another maverick? No, we need someone who knows common sense when he sees it.
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Debate is a setup. The person chosen to moderate the debate between Palin and Biden is Gwen Ifill.
So what you say?
Ifill has a book set to be published in January entitled, “The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama”
Oh, I am sure the debate will be fair… It is only a matter of the “moderator” forgetting about the substantial financial interest she has in a win for Obama.
Posted by JVS | October 2, 2008 6:38 PM