Pakistan

Asif Ali Zardari was sworn in as Pakistan's president, replacing Pervez Musharraf.

Zardari's sole qualification is that he is the widower of the slain leader of the Pakistan's People's Party, Benazir Bhutto. Her main qualification for leading her party and twice serving as prime minister was that she was the daughter of the late prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan is steeped in feudalism and governed by the cult of personality that arises from it. Political parties have no ideology: they are mere extensions of their leaders' love of self and power.

Zardari, the new president, is an erstwhile polo player and playboy whose singular accomplishment in life is that he got Bhutto to marry him. When his wife was prime minister, he was known as "Mr. Ten Percent," for the commissions on state contracts he allegedly took. During the years his wife was in office, he reportedly made off with many tens of millions of dollars that enabled him to, among other things, buy a massive estate in Britain. For years, Swiss authorities wanted him for money laundering. His life seems to have no higher purpose than joining the ranks of the megarich. He is reputed to be the ultimate bullying rogue. His ascension to the presidency is viewed as another sign that Pakistan will join the ranks of other failed states.

And yet, the storyline may not turn out as direly as predicted. Zardari spent 11 years in prison in Pakistan on corruption charges that were never proved in court. Eleven years in prison does something to a man -- even if, in Zardari's case, he was given a private room and bathroom, catered food, and servants. His incarceration was more like house arrest than prison as most imagine it. Still, the experience can steel up the character, teach patience, change one for the worse or for the better.

In fact, for a neophyte politician, Zardari has performed quite credibly in recent months. He has maneuvered himself into the presidency while handpicking the prime minister, Yousef Raza Gillani, from the PPP. And he has cooperated with his political rival, Nawaz Sharif, to topple Musharraf.

Now backed by the United States, Zardari must get the Taliban rebellion in Pakistan's tribal areas under control, calm the fires of separatism and insurgency in the province of Baluchistan, and work with the prime minister to get Pakistan's economy moving again. A life spent getting rich quick provides him little experience in these affairs. Does he even have the emotional will and strength of character to work seriously on matters that would challenge even the best and most well-meaning of politicians?

If Zardari fails, the military might once again step in to fill the power vacuum -- but in a manner different from previous military coups. In Pakistan's muddled history, generals and politicians have taken turns in power, and both have failed. But the West would condemn another coup, and Baluch and Sindhi minorities -- who see the military as a Punjabi conspiracy -- would erupt in nationalist fury if the military seized power. What we might watch for in the months ahead are signs of a creeping, undeclared coup, in which Zardari and opposition leader Sharif engage in a soap opera of political machinations against each other, while the tribal areas and other parts of the country slip into partial anarchy. The military would quietly assert itself, filling the gap in governance. Military rule would prevail, in all but name. That scenario is what the former playboy Zardari threatens to unleash.

After a complaint by the Canadian Islamic Congress, Maclean's magazine and columnist Mark Steyn appeared before the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal to defend the legality of their articles about Islam.

In the UK, during the early days of the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, a similarly buffoonish quasi-governmental body moved to stop the film International Gorillay from being released in Britain. A hit in Pakistan, the movie portrayed Rushdie as a whiskey-soaked Jewish lothario who intended to subvert Islam by running a network of discos and casinos. Rushdie himself intervened to lift the ban, saying the offense was real, but not worth the practical or moral harm done by banning what amounted to just an exceptionally dumb movie -- even if it was a movie that encouraged his own murder. British audiences watched the film, and thanks to YouTube, you can too.

Pakistan elected a new prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gillani of the Pakistan Peoples Party.

Though most consider Gillani a cipher who is merely housesitting for Asif Ali Zardari, the PPP's notoriously corrupt leader-in-exile, many think Pakistan has a rare opportunity to renew itself.

Pakistan held elections, and the Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif parties trounced Pervez Musharraf.

The two victorious parties ruled Pakistan between the late 1980s and the late 1990s -- a disastrous period for Pakistan, with corruption out of control and sectarian violence endemic in Karachi. The situation was so bad that when Musharraf staged his coup, the country's civil-society intellectuals greeted it with relief. The two parties are still feudal, and there is little to indicate they will govern better than they did a decade ago. In Pakistan, neither military nor democratic rule has worked.

But there seems to be no other way forward. I expect a weakening of security with an unwieldy coalition, and a vacuum filled by extremists.   At least the Islamic parties fared badly.